Seventy hardy souls gathered April 8 - 9 at the Garrison Institute for a different kind of conversation about climate change, the launch event for the "Rising Waters" project, an in-depth scenario planning effort convened by The Nature Conservancy to help build a regional consensus for action.  And while the desired action, of course, includes doing everything in our power to prevent catastrophe, it also includes adapting to changes that are already underway.  

David Van Luven, The Nature Conservancy's landscape ecologist and project coordinator, explained from the podium, "When we talk about adaptation, the first response is horror:  doesn't that mean giving up?  But no. It simply means protecting people, nature and economic assets in the face of real changes, from stronger storms to impacts on agriculture."  

Scenarios are stories - plausible stories, grounded in research - that help groups of people make sense of their situation and come to better agreement about what to do. They aren't models or forecasts.  We can't know in advance if they will come true. But they have to ring true.  For decades, corporate strategic planning groups have used scenarios to establish priorities and be more mindful of their potential vulnerabilities, and this project is to help Hudson Valley communities do the same. 

For two days, the voices of planning, transportation, ecosystem management and real estate development were woven together in an exploration of the situation and how we make sense of it: what is predetermined? what are driving forces? What are major uncertainties - like the absorption of CO2 in the oceans?  Who are the prime moving people and organizations who can shape the future by their decisions?  Over the coming months, a scenario team will weave many notes into a set of coherent stories for guidance that can be used by regional planning agencies, land owners and businesses.  We might come up with a scenario about the impacts of preparedness, another about infrastructure breakdown and population influx, another about a world of accelerated development of green technologies (and ont his latter theme, must-read = Earth: The Sequel, by Fred Krupp and Miriam Horn).
    Another gathering about climate change...  aren't we done?  aren't we fatigued?  Well, sometimes. Yet we are also coming to terms with this huge complex issue and what it takes to sustain the gaze.  We heard many busy people's indignation at the request to invest two days in this effort.  We took to heart the limitations of our outreach.  But we were also extremely heartened by the commitment of so many serious people, and the opening for working together that is already making a difference.